Annual report to lawmakers comments are starting to come out
Broadbent comments
- risks for UK unemployment are in both directions
- there is a clear risk that unemployment will rise significantly once support for low schemes come to an end
- no indication from bond markets that investors see MPC's actions as anything other than necessary to meet inflation objective
- Brexit deal doesn't have big direct inflation impact
- we have seen a sterling appreciate because of EU trade deal that would have some depressive effect on UK inflation
- hard to know if trade frictions are having opposite effect on inflation
- main effect on UK inflation probably from sterling strength
- latest UK employment and wage numbers are quite fiddly
- medium-term impact of household savings less significant
- over the course of this year, how fast households spend accumulated savings could have material impact on growth
- our current monetary policy is largely explained by the fact that we expect unemployment to go up
Haskel comments
- faster vaccine rollout that government plans is upside risk for economy
- downside risks to February forecasts are much more prevailant
- firm's ability to repay debts and avoid insolvency represents a sizable downside risks
- risk that worries me most is highly transmissible Covid variants
- risk to activity very much on downside; risks to supply balanced
- remains open to possibility economy might need further support
- concerns about uncertainty over future trade with EU; substantial downside risk to consumer spending monitoring container shortages, should be short run
Bailey comments
- EU locality policy for financial services is controversial of dubious legality
- asking firms to move businesses would be escalation
- would be concerned from financial stability perspective if EU tried to force institutions to localize some operations in EU
- Erosion of stability of global clearing system would be a concern
- numbers on Covid are now more positive for UK economy
- evidence so far of current lockdown is that activity puts it midway between 1st and 2nd lockdown
- pandemics going to UK economy will be limited
- concern over shift of clearing to EU jurisdictions is that there is a tipping affect at some point
- big question for US economy is what fiscal package is agreed
- fiscal package in US will contribute to global growth, there will be positive spillover
Vlieghe comments
- hard to know if economy will need extra help, risks are tilted to the downside
- big uncertainty is whether economy fully returns to pre-Covid path once restrictions removed
- with vaccine, we are getting close to reaching a point where there are no serious restrictions on economic activity