I posted up some of the early bank responses to the Greek 'No' victory in the referendum on Sunday.

More to add now

ANZ:

  • Expect a 'risk-off' defensive trading environment
  • Eurogroup has stated that a 'No' vote will not strengthen Greece's negotiating position
  • Greece likely to request immediate restart of negotiations. However, German Vice Chancellor Gabriel thinks "Greek deal talks now hard to imagine."
  • Financial markets will react negatively ... the initial implication is that it raises the probability of a "Grexit" occurring.

Westpac:

  • an important twist in a critical chapter in Europe's history
  • September Fed tightening odds are likely to be heavily trimmed in coming days, though risk aversion should nevertheless give the USD a strong tone to start the week.
  • At a minimum we would expect the EUR to trade too and below 1.08 and we would not be surprised to see a retest towards the lows seen in March/ April. The AUD has traded below 0.75 for the first time since May 2009.

CBA:

  • "The odds of Greece defaulting on upcoming debt obligations is high and the probability Greece exits the eurozone is rising."

And, here are the earlier comments, collated in one place:

BNP economists have shifted their call for the Federal Reserve's first rate hike to December (from September) following the 'No' victory

  • Markets are likely to be stressed tomorrow morning with risk-off the order of the day
  • Good chance the ECB would move quickly to alleviate strains
  • Heightened uncertainty about Greece's continued membership of the eurozone is likely to continue for some weeks
  • Greece will try to reopen negotiations tomorrow and the EU will respond, but the base case is these will not get very far. There are still a couple of weeks before Greece has to make a EUR3.5bn payment to the ECB on 20th July, which we see as a very significant date.
  • The Fed's concerns about the possible impact of a Fed hike on markets and therefore on the economy will have intensified. We do not see these tensions being resolved quickly and so have changed our call for the Fed moving in September, which we now see as only a 30% chance. December is now our base case.
  • It is unlikely that there will be sufficiently smooth waters in Europe for the Fed to tee up a September hike at its late July meeting.

Barclays - Say a Greek euro exit remains most likely

  • Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande are scheduled to meet tomorrow, we argue that EMU exit now is the most likely scenario

  • Agreeing on a programme with the current Greek government will be extremely difficult for EA leaders, given the Greek rejection of the last deal offered and will be a difficult sell at home, especially at the Bundestag or in Spain ahead of the general elections

  • The ECB Governing Council will meet tomorrow to decide on ELA. We would expect ECB's GC to shut down ELA at the latest by 20 July

  • Assuming that all of the pledged collateral at the ECB is recorded at (close to) par on Greek banks' balance sheets and that current average haircut on collateral is 50%, then retention of the collateral by the Eurosystem would translate into a more than E3Obn loss for the banks. This alone would wipe out shareholders' equity. The Greek central bank will eventually need to print its own currency in order to inject new liquidity and capital

  • The direct exposure of other EMU member states and the Eurosystem amounts to 3.5% of euro area GDP, while exposure of European banks to Greece has fallen to less than one-tenth of that. Even with low recovery values, direct losses should be manageable. Contagion remains the key concern, in our view

  • Can an exit be avoided? We believe the answer is potentially yes: we see two possibilities, even if both are less likely than an exit. Europe and Greece could agree on a programme on the IMF's terms. A more disruptive scenario would be one in which financial and macroeconomic conditions rapidly worsen and social unrest could result in a political crisis, yielding a more moderate pro-deal government.

JP Morgan - Greece leaving the Euro ... the baseline scenario

  • A probability of about 2/3rd at present
  • "We see possibilities of Greece remaining in the Euro zone, either via a last minute agreement with current government under the assumption that the ECB continue to maintain and potentially increase ELA (15%) or in case in which Tsipras steps down and a new unity government is formed (20%)."

Deutsche Bank

  • The range and probability of unpredictable outcomes to the Greek crisis has again materially increased this evening
  • Credibility and trust between Europe and Greece has been seriously damaged this week
  • Negotiations around an ESM program will be even more difficult
  • Over the next few hours, both sides' willingness to re-start negotiations and under what conditions remains the most important next step. Beyond that, it is the increasing pressure on the Greek economy and people via a frozen banking system and capital controls that will drive the speed of developments
  • Decisions have to be taken soon on whether to return to the path of negotiations or consider the alternative of a Eurozone exit

Comments from BNZ on the result:

  • In effect, the result sharply raises the prospect of an eventual Greek exit from the euro - zone
  • Tsipras and his government have been handed a mandate from the Greek people to seek better terms in what will now be called a third bailout package (as opposed to an extension of the second)
  • European leaders will not take this lightly. They have little incentive to improve the deal, for fear of encouraging embattled European nations to use similar tactics in the future
  • The near - term path is not very clear
  • The first pressure point being scrutinised is the emergency credit line from the ECB to Greek banks. The ECB will likely keep this open until it gets clarity from political leaders
  • Markets are in for a period of uncertainty and protracted negotiation

Also, this from Deutsche Bank: 4 scenarios after the No vote from Deutsche Bank

This, from Mohamed A. El-Erian: 10 consequences of the Greek 'No' vote