WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the Beige Book section on the
Federal Reserve’s Ninth District, published Wednesday:
NINTH DISTRICT-MINNEAPOLIS
Since the last report, the Ninth District economy grew at a firm
pace. Consumer spending, tourism, services, manufacturing, energy,
mining and agriculture saw increases. Commercial construction was mixed;
residential construction decreased. Meanwhile, commercial real estate
was weak, and residential real estate activity decreased. Labor markets
showed some signs of strengthening, but wage increases were generally
modest. Overall prices remained relatively level.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending increased since the last report. A major
Minneapolis-based retailer reported that same-store sales in October
were almost 2 percent higher than a year ago. Total September sales at a
Minneapolis area mall increased 9 percent from a year ago, and early
November traffic was steady, according to the mall manager. September
sales at a North Dakota mall were up 6 percent compared with a year
earlier, and recent traffic levels were strong, particularly on
Veterans’ Day. Luxury car dealerships in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area
reported strong sales during the past few months. According to the
University of St. Thomas Holiday Spending Sentiment Survey, household
spending on holiday gifts is predicted to increase a surprising 6.8
percent in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area from last year. Preliminary
results of the Minneapolis Fed’s business outlook poll indicated that 30
percent of respondents expect consumer spending to increase in their
communities in 2011, while 20 percent expect spending to decrease. In
last year’s poll, 18 percent expected increases in consumer spending,
while 49 percent expected decreases.
Tourism activity increased. Minnesota deer hunting licenses sold
through mid-November were up 2 percent from the same period a year ago.
In South Dakota, nonresident small game hunting licenses sold through
October were up 1 percent from the same period a year ago.
Construction and Real Estate
Commercial construction was mixed across the District. In the
Minneapolis-St. Paul area, commercial developers said activity was at a
standstill. In contrast, the value of October commercial permits in
Fargo, N.D., nearly doubled from low levels the same month a year
earlier, while permits in Sioux Falls, S.D., increased 10 percent.
Residential construction slowed. October permits in the Minneapolis-St.
Paul area fell 13 percent in value from the previous October, while the
number of permitted units increased. Permits fell slightly in value in
Sioux Falls and were roughly flat in Fargo in October from a year
earlier. In contrast, October permits increased by nearly a third in
Rochester, Minn.
Commercial real estate remained weak. Vacancy rates in
Minneapolis-St. Paul were near record levels for office and industrial
space, and very few large transactions were noted. A commercial real
estate broker in Fargo described activity there as “slow and steady,”
with few purchases but some recent large leasing deals. Residential real
estate activity dropped due in part to problems closing transactions for
bank-owned properties. October pending sales in Minneapolis-St. Paul
fell 36 percent from the previous year, while inventories increased and
prices were flat. Sales decreased slightly in Sioux Falls, but average
prices increased.
Services
Professional business services firms are optimistic about economic
activity. Based on results from the business outlook poll and the
business confidence survey, respondents from the services sector expect
increased sales and capital investment in 2011. An information
technology consulting firm expects to double its workforce over the next
year due to unexpectedly robust demand.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing output was up since the last report. An October
survey of purchasing managers by Creighton University (Omaha, Neb.)
showed increases in manufacturing activity in Minnesota and South
Dakota, and slight increases in North Dakota. Preliminary results of a
November manufacturers survey by the Minneapolis Fed and the Minnesota
Department of Employment and Economic Development indicated that
manufacturing activity increased in 2010 from 2009 and that this trend
is expected to continue through 2011. Based on results from the business
outlook poll, manufacturers expect increased sales and capital
investment in 2011.
Energy and Mining
Activity in the energy and mining sectors increased since the last
report. Mid-November oil exploration activity increased since early
October. Wind energy is expanding across the District, but at a slower
pace than a year ago. Strong prices were noted for District mining
commodities, and District mines were operating at near capacity. In
Minnesota, October iron ore production increased slightly from
September.
Agriculture
Agricultural activity saw large harvests and solid prices. Because
of nearly ideal weather conditions, the harvest was completed early.
Large yields and production were noted for most district crops. The U.S.
Department of Agriculture raised its price estimates for corn and
soybeans. The Minneapolis Fed’s third-quarter (October) survey of
agricultural credit conditions indicated that most lenders expect
overall agricultural income and spending to be higher in the fourth
quarter.
Employment, Wages and Prices
Labor markets showed some signs of strengthening. A semiconductor
firm recently announced plans to hire 300 more employees in Minnesota as
part of a factory expansion. Employment gains were also reported in
Great Lakes grain shipping. A representative of a temporary services
firm noted that it is becoming more difficult to find talented workers
in information technology, skilled trades and health care. In the Upper
Peninsula, a manufacturer noted difficulty finding technical and welding
workers. According to the business outlook poll, 34 percent of
respondents expect to increase employment at their own firms during
2011, while 8 percent expect decreases. In last year’s poll, 14 percent
of respondents expected to increase staff, while 45 percent expected to
lay off workers. In contrast, a Minnesota wind tower maker laid off 110
workers, and an information management firm will lay off 60 workers. A
health insurance company in Fargo was laying off 63 people.
Wage increases were generally modest. A contact in the information
technology sector said that he expects continued depressed wage levels
in software development. In contrast, pressure on wages in oil-producing
areas of western North Dakota and eastern Montana had some fast food
restaurants offering as much as $13 per hour with signing bonuses.
Prices remained relatively level with some exceptions noted.
Mid-November Minnesota gasoline prices were about the same as early
October, but diesel fuel prices increased. A Minnesota-based food
producer recently announced price increases for some of its cereals and
baking products due to increased commodity and grain expenses. A bank
director noted that fertilizer prices have increased over the past few
months.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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