Here is an early preview of Friday's US Nonfarm payroll report from Barclays
- August employment report
- Due at 1230GMT on Friday, September 4
Barclays Capital forecasts nonfarm payrolls to rise by 225k on the month
"Within this, we look for private payrolls growth of 220k and for government employment to have expanded by 5k. Initial jobless claims were up 22k in the August reference week from the same period last month, though we view this increase as a reflection of the anomalously low July reading; the monthly average of initial claims looks to be little changed in August. Continuing jobless claims were flat between the July and August survey weeks. Together, stable jobless claims lead us to look for a near-trend pace of payroll growth of 225k in August," Barclays projects.
"Additional factors supporting our outlook include two consecutive monthly declines in part-time employment for economic reasons, as well as positive momentum in the employment diffusion index. We expect this pace of employment growth to push the unemployment rate down one-tenth to 5.2%," Barclays adds.
"Elsewhere, we forecast average hourly earnings to have risen 0.2% m/m and 2.0% y/y. Finally, we look for average weekly hours to remain unchanged at 34.6," Barclays projects.
This is via eFX, where you'll find more bank analysis and trade recommendations
