So much uncertainty

Brexit is one of those rare crisis where everyone knows the end-point: something akin to free trade between the EU and UK, but no one knows how we will get there.

Political parties are splint internally and voters are fragmented. With so many politicians grandstanding, it's tough to see how there could ever be a consensus.

Westpac is out with an attempt to put the odds on various outcomes:

No Deal-still a possibility, but it has slipped from possible to unlikely and could slip further if Parliamentary motions tabled are supported next week. Currently a (vulnerable) 10% risk

Chequers Deal returns-May had hoped to return repeatedly with the plan, adopting amendments and garnering support along the way, until it finally bludgeoned its way to being supported. This could still be a plan, but seems to have been mortally wounded. Currently around 10% risk

Better Deal 1-softer Chequers with a time-limit for the backstop. The EU's red-line of the backstop having no end if an agreed future relationship cannot found is unlikely to be altered. 15%chanceBetter Deal 2-softer Brexit implicitly ensuring a customs union (Norway plus) until a future relationship is found. This pushes back on hard line Brexiters and trade negotiations cannot occur until an agreed future relationship is forged. 30-40% chance

Second Referendum-although popular amongst broader Parliamentarians, the major parties are officially opposed to a second referendum (Conservatives want to adhere to the initial vote, Labour wants to force an election). However, if Parliament moves to "take control" of Brexit, the Conservatives could, after deposing May, shift towards a second referendum. 15-20% chance

General Election-the Labour Party's favoured option is to push for an election, but there would have to be a deeper breakdown in relations within the Conservative Party and with the DUP to allow for such an outcome. 10-15% chance

Brexit Delayed-The potential for a delay of the Article 50 deadline appears to be increasing by the day and would actually be a component of several if not most of the above outcomes as logistic impediments to the end date of 29th March are accepted. >60% chance and increasing