China October to December economic growth data is due at 0200GMT on Monday 21 January 2019

  • expected 6.4% y/y, prior 6.5%
  • for the full year, 6.6% expected, prior 6.7%

Via Westpac, in summary:

  • China's growth pulse has decelerated through 2018
  • seems likely the target of 6.5% growth will still be achieved
  • In contrast, quarterly growth is likely to be 1.5% (6.0% annualised) or below, as weak investment weighs

WPAC add:

  • the focus has already shifted to the year to come
  • most likely to be around 6.0%
  • in the months ahead, investment is likely to struggle to accelerate from its current pace. Meanwhile, the strong consumption growth of early-2018 continues to decelerate

Via ASB:

  • Although a lot of focus recently has been on the any consequences of the US-China trade spat, the slowing in Chinese economic momentum largely reflects weaker domestic conditions.
  • With Chinese officials introducing numerous policies to help support demand (including tax cuts announced last week) we don't see any imminent risk of a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy.
  • For NZ, we continue to view the slowing Chinese economy as a key downside risk to the outlook. A gradual slowdown in growth to still decent rates is more manageable than a sharp contraction.