China trade balance (Nov.), exports and imports fall from Oct. and miss median estimates

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Trade balance data for November from China

Yuan terms
China trade balance CNY 306.04bn for a beat (note this in yuan, local currency, terms)
  • expected CNY 226.50bn, prior was CNY 233.63bn
Exports +10.2% y/y for a miss
  • expected +13.8%, prior was +20.1%
Imports +7.8% y/y for a miss
  • expected +18.3%, prior was +26.3%

USD terms

China trade balance USD 44.74bn, a beat in USD terms also but do note the fall in both exports and imports in the month in dollar terms
  • expected $ 34.00bn, prior was $ 34.022bn
Exports +5.4% y/y miss
  • expected 9.46%, prior 15.6%
Imports +3.0% y/y miss
  • expected 14.0%, prior was 21.4%

Read the results in yuan or USD terms ... both export and imports slumped.Trade wars, eh?

I mentioned on Friday (see link below) this data may well impact on the Australian dollar. Can't see this as being anything other than a negative input. Perhaps the blow will be cushioned by the fall in the AUD during Friday trade and a close within spitting distance of the week's low? Or perhaps not!
Its almost as if the market saw this coming ;-)

Anyway, there is nothing to be done until markets get underway again on Monday. Enjoy the balance of the your weekend all!

China's November trade surplus with the US is USD 35.55bn
  • was USD 31.78 bn in October 
For background:
ps. It looks like China's Nov. inflation data will be published Sunday (9 Dec. 2018) at 0130GMT. I don't know if I'll be around for that, day of prayer and all that (now you know I'm full of it :-D ). But its the trade data the one likely to impact the most.  
  • November CPI expected 2.4%, prior 2.5%
  • November PPI expected 2.7%, prior 3.3%

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