Snippet from Deutsche on the NZD, analysts there bearish NZD/USD
- NZD appears overvalued
- RBNZ policy could take it lower - due to the scale of their QE program
- also an NZ election on the way
- rapid NZ re-opening underway is certainly a positive, but not overly surprising
And, comparing to AUD:
- looks better placed with a quiet RBA and China's reflation lifting iron ore
- fiscal package was large when announced ... but take-up has undershot expectations (some evidence of resilience in the economy)
- The RBA ... has opted for yield curve control rather than full-blown asset purchases. And with its 0.25% target for the 3y yield being achieved, its balance sheet has been fairly flat for over a month, marking a stark contrast to most peers.
- China's credit growth has long been a reliable guide to AUD, and suggests upside
- we're reluctant to go bullish AUD/USD at this level
