ECBs Draghi’s comments have helped push the EURUSD back down to and below the trendline and key 200 hour MA (1.2464-75 area). Market remain hinged to the comments but overall his comments are more bearish.
The 38.2% of the move up from the low comes in at the 1.2343. The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.2428. A move below the 100 hour MA would increase the bearish bias for the pair (sellers will be looking for it now to further prove the negative bias) Resistance now comes in against the 1.2464-75.
Since June 1, the EURUSD has been corrective with more of a two way flow. The moves above the 100 and 200 hour MAs are an indication of that more neutral bias shift. Traction is hard to get and keep during this phase. So be more cognizant of the ranges and be more patient – waiting for extremes (maybe failures of technical levels). It is a fall in like with the market, not fall in love with it. If the bias is negative the bias is negative until it gets through the next target. If that level cannot be breached (i.e. the 100 hour MA), don’t be surprised if the market switches gears and rotates the other way.
