There will be much focus on the Aussie data today – the June employment report. Due at 0130GMT:
- Employment Change for June: expected 12.0K, prior -4.8K
- Unemployment Rate June: expected 5.9%, prior 5.8%
- Full Time Employment Change June, prior was +22.2K
- Part Time Employment Change June, prior was -27.0K
- Participation Rate June, expected is 64.6%, prior was 64.6%
This will be closely watched. While the market has the next RBA meeting in August already inked in a ‘no change’ meeting, the RBA will be wanting to see continued trend employment growth (employment is one of their mandates). With the AUD creeping back higher after last week’s awful trade balance and Glenn Stevens follow-up jawboning lower, today’s report will impact on the rate.
Last month’s report was a bit of a mixed bag … with a fall in employment but a big jump in full-time employment. In the past we’ve seen solid gains in employment accompanied by falls in full-time employment and the response has been a predictable “but the jobs are only part-time!” … But last month’s result wasn’t accompanied by a chorus of “the jobs’s are full-time!”, which is not surprising. Negativity bias?
