Retails softer as the UK blows another great sporting opportunity

Sales last month were boosted by the booze as the Kingdom got ready for a massive sporting event. Egg chasers are what most football fans call our rugby playing colleagues

Many a pub was filled during the World cup and stores saw healthy sales of rugby souvenirs and paraphernalia. The shops didn't hang about in slashing prices as soon as England and the other home counties got hoofed out of the tournament though, with England suffering the most embarrassment

And so it's no surprise to see all that promise end up in sales tickets and loss of interest. In the bigger picture sales are still doing well and money is being spent. This Christmas period could be a big one for gauging the sentiment of UK consumers and whether all the wage gains we have been seeing will translate into some real holiday cheer

However, in this modern age the retail landscape has changed. It used to be that the few weeks leading up to Christmas would see people hitting the shops and so sales were condensed into a smaller window. Now with internet shopping people don't need to rush and can buy as and when they see fit. The days of using one month to see how Christmas fared is waning and now we should really judge both November and December together

For the pound, we're already eating into the losses seen on the release, with pound pairs bouncing. Unless we see year on year sales hitting a defined trend lower, the market won't be too worried

We're back above the S&R point at 1.5235/45 and trying to get a foothold above the Apr 2015 broken support line

GBPUSD H4 chart

Things are a bit messy from here to 1.5500, which is still the big level to get above for bulls. As the Dec FOMC draws closer, a Fed induced drop in the quid from a hike might remove a good deal of uncertainty from BOE rate watchers and bring a good buying opportunity. Even with the recent dovish comments from the MPC/inflation report we've still had BOE members saying that the market is underpricing a hike in the UK

The FOMC won't just be big for the dollar, it could unleash the hounds in many other currencies