EUR and AUD crosses are generally lower with the CHF again making the most gains and the JPY, GBP and USD basically unchanged.

I’ve had a few chats with fellow traders today and we’ve been trying to figure out what the best currency to buy is.

  • Given what’s going on with Greece and the possible ramifications for the other EU countries, buying EUR is pretty hard to justify and in fact it looks like a raging ‘short’
  • The US economy is certainly not convincing and there are more rumblings emanating from the housing industry. QE2 is about to end and that may set the economy back again which could lead to a Wall Street sell-off. The USD is at low levels but it’s hard to buy with confidence
  • The GBP is usually closely allied to both the USD and EUR so if they fall, then the GBP might struggle as well.
  • The AUD market is very long, the AUD is close to record levels, and one bad sign out of China could mean a 10% adjustment so its hard to be long at these levels.
  • The CHF has seen massive inflows in recent years from the Middle East and also from Greece in recent times. It’s certainly a bubble but this bubble might still have a long way to go. It’s justifiable to be long CHF but certainly not without danger.
  • The JPY is also at very high levels despite the earthquake/tsunami and a very loose monetary policy. I certainly cannot find any reason to be long JPY.

Which leaves the CAD and the NZD and as I can never make any money trading either, I may be in a bit of strife


I think I might buy some more GBP