EUR/GBP buying, EUR/CHF buying by SNB, EUR/JPY selling as a risk-aversion play, and persistent USD weakness; all these ingredients have to be thrown into the mix before we can come up with a destination for EUR/USD in the short to medium term.
The weight of the argument would seem to be with the bulls but what worries me is that the EUR/USD is at historically high levels. Certainly the US has its problems but it has done much to try and rectify them whereas Europe it seems is still sitting on a time-bomb when you look at the individual debt of many of the member countries.
All up then it looks like I should be range trading the EUR/USD with a very mild bullish bias, as long as 1.48 continues to hold. The next upside target is the double-top neckline at 1.5290 and this should be the upper end of the range.
(Or based on my analysis above; when EUR/USD gets to 1.48 I should sell USD/JPY, and when EUR/USD gets to 1.53 I should sell cable!)
