It was an eagerly awaited speech and the euro bears have not been disappointed
If the US Fed are preparing markets for a rate hike then it appears Draghi & Co are preparing us all for further easing on 3 Dec
Yesterday Ryan highlighted the latest ECB Minutes here and suggested they point to a definite easing in Dec
Regular readers will know that I'm not as bearish as some on the euro impact and neither am I as bullish as most on a Dec FOMC rate hike but then I've always tended to trade with a contrarian view. Being a dedicated follower of fashion has never been my style, in or out of the trading room!
For me the big question now is not whether the ECB or FOMC act or not but how much has been/continues to be factored in.
After all, this ( def the FOMC lift-off) is the longest waiting game of second-guessing that markets have experienced in recent times so if you want to buy USD or sell EUR you've had plenty of time. If the FOMC hike or the ECB ease it will take something extra-ordinary to accelerate these moves
As always we need to trade on fact not conjecture but in the real world this isn't how markets react and for the intra-day traders it's the speculation prior as well as the fact after that creates opportunity
I am looking at buying some cheap euros again but no need to jump in just yet. There will be time enough and I also think that EURGBP demand will ultimately help cap GBPUSD rallies again
No crystal ball or runes to back it up but the joy of these markets is the on-going scenario of good two-way business. What's not to like about that ?
As I type EURGBP is holding 0.6980-85 again and GBPUSD is slipping back toward the 1.5250-60 area with EURUSD rallying slightly to 1.0677 from lows again around 1.0665. Good support down there as saw yesterday in defence of some large option expiries.
