Forex news for US trading on September 30:

  • Chicago PMI 48.7 vs. 53.0, estimate
  • US ADP non-farm employment change Sept +200k vs +190k exp
  • Canada GDP July mm +0.3% vs +0.2% exp
  • Japan pension fund to invest in junk bonds - Nikkei
  • Feds Dudley: Will make sure QE withdrawal won't roil markets
  • Dudley: Expect volatility to mount as liftoff gets closer
  • Fitch keeps US economy growth rate at 2.5% in 2015 and 2016
  • IMF warns of 'hard landing' in Australian housing
  • Financial instability concerns influence federal funds rate says Fed's Rosengren
  • Fed's Yellen and Bullard speak on community banking
  • EIA US crude oil inventories +3955K vs -100K expected
  • Gold down $12 to $1115
  • S&P 500 up 36 points to 1920
  • US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 2.04%
  • WTI cude up 17-cents to $45.40
  • On the day, NZD leads and euro lags
  • On the quarter, yen leads and Australian dollar lags
  • The best and worst performing currencies in Q3

The soft Eurozone inflation numbers continued and finally weighed on the euro as talk about more QE did the rounds. Most of the damage was done in Europe as the pair opened US trading at 1.1205 but dropped to 1.1158 before London closed. Afterwards it was a chop towards 1.1177.

Cable, incredibly, fell for the ninth consecutive day as it added another quarter cent to the decline. In sum, the two week rally is only 450 pips but a nine-day streak is poor signal. It follows a run of nine losses in 10 days in late August. UK data was decent with the current account improving but the pound just can't get off the floor. Keep a close eye on the May lows, just below 1.51.

USD/JPY hit an airpocket at 10:30 am ET and dropped a half-cent to a session low of 119.55. After a few hours of consolidation, better sentiment in stocks helped the pair back to 119.87. Overall, flows dominate at quarter end and someone clearly needed to buy yen.

In an even better example of the power of quarter end, USD/CAD rose early in the day despite rallying oil and then fell when crude fell back to unchanged on the inventory numbers. On the day, the pair ended up down a full cent in the largest decline of the month. Last at 1.3317.

AUD/USD was quieter as it drifted towards 0.7000 from 0.7035. The IMF report wasn't helpful but didn't cause an noticeable volatility.

The Swiss franc was a quiet outperformer. CHF/JPY fell early but bounced back and EUR/CHF was consistently under pressure in a slide to 1.0880 from 1.0940. It was a great quarter for the latter pair as it added 440 pips, no doubt to the SNB's pleasure.