Forex news for US trading May 26, 2015:

  • April 2015 US durable goods orders -0.5% vs -0.5% exp
  • Cap goods orders non-def ex-air 1.0% vs +0.3% exp
  • US May Richmond Fed 1 vs 0 expected
  • April 2015 US new home sales 0.517m vs 0.510m exp
  • US May consumer confidence 95.4 vs 95.0 expected
  • US March Case-Shiller 20 city house price index SA +0.95% vs +0.9%
  • March 2015 US FHFA house price index 0.3% vs % 0.7% exp m/m
  • May 2015 US Philly Fed non manufacturing activity index 54.5 vs 41.0 prior
  • May 2015 US Dallas Fed manufacturing index -20.8 vs -16 prior
  • Fischer: Fed to consider global feedback in policy decisions
  • Apple considering selling yen-denominated bonds
  • Dallas, KC, Philly and Cleveland wanted hikes in discount minutes
  • Hilsenrath: Skewed growth stats should change Fed focus
  • Markit US services PMI 56.4 vs 56.5 expected
  • No deal between Greece and creditors expected by Thursday says Eurozone official
  • Gold down $15 to $2105
  • WTI crude down $1.58 to %58.14
  • S&P 500 down 20 points to 2105
  • US 10-year yields down 7.7 bps to 2.13%
  • USD leads, JPY lags

The US dollar broke out in Europe on USD/JPY gains to an 8-year high but a few doses of good data poured gasoline on the fire and the dollar continued to rip. The main factor in US trading was the core component of the durable goods report. The headline was good but the revisions were blockbuster and the USD bulls began to feel like they've been right all along and piled in.

USD/JPY was a moonshot, finishing up close to 150 pips on the day. The data sent the pair to 123.32 from 1.2263. A couple marginal highs came later in the day but nothing stuck and that prompted a bit of profit taking down to 122.82, especially as bond yields tumbled. USD bulls perked up again late and some fresh bids pushed the pair to 123.06 last.

EUR/USD wasn't quite the same bang for the buck as it climbed to 1.0940 in Europe after a slump in Asia only to chop and grind down to 1.0863. Greg notes the 61.8% retracement in the neighbourhood. Once again (this is a pattern) fresh lows don't often provoke any kind of squeeze. That's because the short-EUR trade is already crowded.

Cable bounced after falling to 1.5354 in the post-durable goods trade. The rally extended to 1.5415 and then consolidated around the big figure. Some sellers arrived later; last at 1.5382 but (unlike the euro) it finished well off the lows.

USD/CAD rallied once again and is back in the Feb-April range. It was a perfect storm of commodity weakness, USD strength, an oil slump and a bit of worry about tomorrow's BOC decision (don't sweat it). Last at 1.2432, not far from 1.2448 high.

Similar story in AUD/USD as it continued to fall despite yet-another rally in Chinese stocks. Durable goods hit hard and sent the pair down to 0.7750 from 0.7805. A small bounce was followed by new lows, including late-day selling down to 0.7730.