Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Thursday 9 August 2018
- USD longs are 'dancing on a volcano'
- Here are 6 charts on where the Chinese yuan is going next
- Goldman Sachs say difficult to reach a finalized NAFTA agreement
- China July CPI 2.1% (vs. expected at 2.0%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8317 (vs. yesterday at 6.8313)
- China's state broadcaster says China must counteract tariffs imposed by the United States
- Japan Core Machinery Orders for June: -8.8% m/m (expected -1.0%)
- ICYMI: The BOJ is roiling markets. 7 questions.
- UK RICS house price balance July: 4% (expected 4%)
- Saudi energy minister says dispute with Canada won't affect Aramco clients in Canada
- Mexico's Econ minister says "definitely encouraged" on Nafta talks
- ICYMI: JPMorgan says Trump may sell dollars as weapon in US trade war
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 9 August 2018
The session kicked off with the RBNZ monetary policy decision and Statement, with the kicking focused on the NZD.
The Bank left the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% but cut its outlook (forward guidance) for rates and inflation. There is more in the bullets, collated below, but the key takeaways on rates;
- Rates expected to remain on hold longer than previously forecast, on hold through 2019 and into 2020
- reiterated the next move could be up or down
- Rate hike to 2% expected December 2020, prior RBNZ signalling a hike in March 2020.
The New Zealand dollar was marked down immediately, dropping by about 40 points. The losses were extended as the session progressed with NZD/USD only finding lows for the day circa 0.6665, down not quite a full cent from US afternoon trade levels.
The RBNZ as it happened:
- RBNZ leaves its cash rate on hold, as expected
- NZD lower on the RBNZ dovish hold statement
- RBNZ Gov Orr says the risks to the rate outlook are balanced, up or down
- More from RBNZ Gov Orr - says NZD very close to fair value
- RBNZ Gov Orr's press conference finished, but there is more Orr to come at 0100GMT
- NZD extending its post RBNZ drop a little more (spilt milk?)
- More from RBNZ Gov Orr - number one risk is low business confidence
- RBNZ Gov Orr says it makes sense for the Bank to watch and wait for now
NZD:
AUD/USD remained supported through the session by flows into AUD/NZD. It lost a few tics only and as the kiwi stabilised from 0.6665/70 and ticked towards 0.6685 AUD/USD found its feet and popped to around 0.7450 (from lows around 0.7420).
EUR/USD is little changed net on the session. It traded a similar pattern to AUD/USD, down a touch and then to a fresh session high (all this in a barely 20 point range).
Cable has been a little bit more of a mover, on zero fresh news for it here today. A slip earlier briefly to under 1.2860 has been retraced toward 1.2890.
USD/CAD has done little, with not much on the Saudi tensions breaking here today (there is one point in the bullets above).
USD/JPY has looked soft for the session. The range has been small however and its currently around the middle of it as I update (110.82 or so after a more or less 70/00 range). We got some ugly machinery order data from Japan earlier (see bullets above)
The PBOC set the mid rate for USD/CNY barely chnaged on the session today.
Still to come:
