Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 9 March 2016

China

  • PBOC vice-gov: Studying measures to address rising house prices
  • China stocks had a(nother) bad morning - NPC inspired rally coming (again)?
  • BoA / ML ask: Could China suffer a currency crisis?
  • Beijing briefing: China's economic statistics are true and reliable
  • China - expansion in 2016 budget deficit to fund tax cuts
  • PBOC sets yuan reference rate for today at 6.5106
  • PBOC inject 15bn yuan through OMOs today
  • Private equity firm advice for the PBOC - devalue the yuan or be 1990s Japan
  • WSJ's Hilsenrath: Fed on hold next week, then keeping hike options open
  • Preview of the RBNZ meeting - no change in interest rate expected
  • EUR dipping in Asia also - EUR/JPY sellers about
  • Japan PM Abe says he isn't considering new stimulus, extra budget
  • NZ finmin English: Govt has long-term confidence in outlook for dairy
  • Goldman Sachs on oil price rally: "not sustainable in the current environment"
  • Australia January Home loans data: -3.9% m/m (expected -3.0%)
  • Britain's finance lobby says Brexit would hit City of London
  • Japan money stock (February.): M2 +3.1% y/y (+3.2% expected) M3 +2.5% (2.6% expected)
  • Australia: Westpac Consumer Confidence (March): -2.2% m/m (prior +4.2%)
  • UK press reports the Queen backs Brexit
  • Gold to $1400: Defaults going up, banks crashing, stock mkts tumbling
  • Recap on Gundlach's comments: "Oil is the key to everything"
  • Trade ideas thread for Wednesday 9 March 2016
  • NZ Card spending for February: Retail +0.7% m/m, Total -0.1% m/m
  • Jeff Gundlach: S&P500 has 2% upside but 20% downside
  • American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil inventories +4.4 million bbls
  • "Stocks can go up 5 to 10%, gold is mispriced (maybe)"

I'm going to lead off with a remarkable move; the EUR. Yes, it moved during the Asian timezone!

In fact, CHF and GBP also managed some moves today.

EUR/JPY sellers were active during the session and this, along with vulnerable longs ahead of the ECb this week, took EUR/USD lower for the session, off around 40 points or so (as I write) from the session highs). There was little in the of news (of relevance) to impact on the EUR it did seem flow-related only.

USD/CHF traded higher. There was some EUR/CHF cross-related activity apparent, dribbling a little net lower on the session - it continues to weigh as I update.

Cable was heavy. There was a report earlier that the Queen is in favour of Brexit (see bullets, above) which seems to have impacted. I don't imagine we'll get any confirmation of her views, she stays pretty much out of political issues.

USD/JPY began the Tokyo morning ticking a little higher but ran out of steam above 112.70. its since come back toward 112.40 and then slowly made its way back up toward 70. A small range for it today.

AUD and NZD traded down. Australian housing finance data came in weak today, which may have weighed somewhat. The RBNZ announce their latest OCR decision (preview in bullets, above) Thursday morning NZ time which added to NZD nerves today. (For NZ readers, there has been a multiple shooting incident reported in the country - four police officers apparently injured)

Local stock markets (mostly) fell again today. Shanghai stock are about to open for the afternoon session, yesterday there was a huge afternoon rally that wiped the losses away, speculation is it was intervention to prevent a negative result during the NPC.

Oil is little changed, up a few cents on the session, gold is lower today.

Regional equities

  • Nikkei -1.03%
  • Shanghai -2.90%
  • HK -0.61%
  • ASX +0.86%

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