Forex trading news for NY trading on April 18, 2018
- US stocks end mixed. Dow hurt by IBM today.
- It may be a historic anniversary, but EURCHF is within pips of a historic level
- Fed's Dudley answers questions: Balance sheet runoff has not disrupted financial markets
- Fed's Dudley: See's higher neutral policy at 3% now
- Pres. Trump: Will shrink US trade deficit with Japan
- Crude oil futures settle at $68.47
- Dollar little changed after the Beige Book
- Fed's Beige Book: Economy continued to expand at modest-to-moderate pace
- Expect scale and consolidation in the Bitcoin mining industry next
- US said to target NAFTA deal in the next three weeks
- Video: What's next for the Canadian dollar after the BOC decision
- Fed's Bullard: Global economy is in very good shape right now
- Audio recap: Bank of Canada disappoints hawks
- Trade ideas thread: What's the next move in markets?
- Wilkins Q&A: It's important to make the right calls on temporary factors in inflation data
- European equities post another solid gain, led by UK
- BOC's Poloz Q&A: We're comfortable with our inflation forecasts
- BOC's Poloz: Interest rates may need to remain below neutral range
- US weekly oil inventories -1071K vs +650K expected
- USD/CAD touches a one-week high after BOC decision
- Full text of the April 18, 2018 Bank of Canada statement
- Bank of Canada leaves interest rates unchanged at 1.25%, as expected
- US retail is in retreat, but how far will it go?
- ECB's Villeroy acknowledges recent slump in data
- Fed's Kaplan: Energy has gone from headwind to tailwind
- Merkel: Moar Europe please
- US President Trump confirms Mike Pompeo meeting with Kim Jong Un in North Korea
The snapshot of the other markets shows:
- Spot gold is up $1.82 or 0.13% at $1349.28
- WTI crude oil futures is up $2.29 or 3.44% at $68.81. It is moving higher in after-hours trading
- Bitcoin is trading up $261 at $8174
The US stocks were mixed:
- S&P rose 2.25 points or 0.08%
- Nasdaq rose 14.139 points or 0.19%
- Dow fell -38.56 points or -0.16%
In the US debt market yields were higher:
- 2 year 2.427%, +3.3 basis points
- 5 year 2.730%, +4.3 basis points
- 10 year 2.872%, +4.4 basis points
- 30 year 3.061%, +4.1 basis points
The CAD was the weakest currency of the day and the biggest story. The Bank of Canada Rates unchanged as expected. Moreover, Governor Poloz was more dovish in the press conference.
Some dovish comments included:
- Interest rates may need to remain below neutral range
- Economy not yet able to stay at full capacity on its own
- More room for demand growth within our 2% inflation target
- There are elements of slack in the economy
The USDCAD moved up from 1.2553 to a high at 1.2658. That took the price above its 200 hor MA at 1.2622 and the 200 day MA at the same level. The afternoon North American trading has taken the pair back down to retest those key MAs. The price trades at 1.2626 currently. In the new trading day, that area around the 1.2622 will be a key bias level for traders. Stay above is bullish. Move below with be bearish.
The USD was mostly higher today with gains against all major currencies with the exception of the AUD and the EUR (call the EURUSD unchanged).
The GBPUSD got hammered in the London session, corrected and fell back down in the US session. The pair is closing below its 200 hour MA at 1.4214. On the daily chart, the big fall took the price below a broken topside trend line that comes in at the current level at 1.4202. Key level in the new trading day.
The AUDUSD rallied sharply after the pair stalled at the 200 hour MA and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. The move higher took the price above the 100 day MA at 0.7790 but the price momentum could not keep the price above that level into the close. Below the 100 hour MA at 0.77718 is close support. The 100 day MA at 0.77913 (today) will be resistance. A break below or above will help to dictate the bias. I would give the nod to the buyers on the sharp rebound today.
