Forex news for New York trading on October 31, 2018:
- Raab: Expect Brexit deal by Nov 21
- Canada August GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% expected
- US October ADP employment 227K vs 189K expected
- US Q3 employment cost index +0.8% vs +0.7% expected
- Canada September industrial product price +0.1% vs 0.0% expected
- Kudlow: Part of stock market decline is uncertainty about midterms
- GE cut to Baa1 from A2 by Moody's, outlook stable
- SNB's Jordan: Switzerland could be among countries worst hit by trade war
- New Zealand Quotable Value house prices rise 5.4% y/y
- ECB's De Cos: Eurozone slowdown more pronounced than seen before
- OPEC output jumps in October despite declines by Iran and Venezuela
- EIA weekly US oil inventories +3217K vs +3211K expected
- US job ads decreased by 267.3K in October
- October Chicago PMI 58.4 vs 60.0 expected
- Portugal's Silva says EU and UK are very close to a Brexit deal
Markets:
- Gold down $7 to $1216
- WTI crude down 80-cents to $65.09
- S&P 500 up 29 points to 2711
- US 10-year yields up 2.6 bps to 3.15%
- GBP leads, NZD lags
It was a lively month-end session to cap off a wild month.
The early story was improving risk appetite and that led to a third day of gains in USD/JPY as the pair rose to 113.39 at the highs. But heavy selling into the London fix cut it down to 112.87. It bounced to 113.10 from there but equities slid late and it looks to finish near a session low at 112.87.
Cable was lively with the biggest move come on Raab headlines about a Nov 21 Brexit. People and algos misread the report and it sent cable up 80 pips before turning back around and giving it all back. Stilll, more Brexit optimism is starting to brew.
The big technical story at the moment is EUR/USD as it flirts with 1.1300, which was the August low. It came within a couple pips but whether it was China buying or option buyers, it didn't matter. It held for now and bounced to 1.1321 but the bounce won't last if European data doesn't start to improve.
It was a brutal month for CAD bulls as the NAFTA deal flopped in the market. Today's GDP report gave the loonie a temporary lift but it also faded in a rally to 1.3171 -- the highest since Sept 11. The driver was oil, which finished the month down 10%.
The New Zealand dollar underperformed CAD on the day but it was mostly just giving back the prior day's gains as it stays in the middle of the one-month range. AUD/USD failed to build on Tuesday's rally as well and remains within striking distance of 0.7000.
Happy Halloween.
