- Ireland likely to accept “contingency” package
- Talks likely to extend into next week; corporate tax rate a “red line” issue
- US weekly jobless claims rise 2,000 to 439,000 from 437,000; as expected
- 4-week moving average in claims lowest since September 2009
- Trichet warns on reliance on bank liquidity; rates could go up before non-standard measures fully withdrawn
- Greece to return to bond market in 2011
- Philly Fed index soars to 25 in November from 1 in October
- Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.5% in October
- Fed’s Warsh: Chance for economy to grow faster
- Fed’s Locherlakota: QE-linked inflation fears overblown
- S&P 500 rises 1.5%; GM IPO tepid, shares rise 3%, close $1 below opening price, $2 below intraday high.
- US 10-year note rises 2 bp in yield, closes at 2.90%
- CRB index rises 2.4%
It was a risk-on day in the US today and the normal correlations worked out at the end, though they decoupled for a time after Philly Fed.
EUR/USD pushed as 1.3368 at the US open but soon stalled and consolidated between 1.3620 and 60 before sliding to 1.3585 shortly after the Philly Fed index proved surprisingly strong. Markets were quiet illiquid today amid reports that many of the bigger market players are closing are largely closing their books for the year. We did not stay below 1.3600 for long and soon popped back toward 1.3650 in early afternoon before falling into a consolidation below the 1.3650 level.
USD/JPY was a beneficiary of improved risk appetites and was further lifted by an intraday backup in US yields (10-year notes reached 2.96%) . Resistance at 83.60 and 83.72 (61.8% of post-intervention decline) were milestones but the afternoon decline in yields prompted profit-taking. 84.35/40 is now support.
Cable was well supported today with the impending Irish bank-support package a plus for UK banks. We close not far from session highs at 1.6055, at 1.6045.
AUD was boosted by a move back into commodities , closing near the 0.9900 level. USD/CAD rebounded in the afternoon amid reports of steady buying of dollars by real-money accounts. It ends above 1.02.
USD/CHF was very volatile today, rising to 1.00 before being capped by defense of a barriers at 1.00 and 1.0020.