A note from Goldman Sachs in Australia today
- expects a vaccine to be approved by the Australian government in Q1 of 2021
- distribution in Q2
- Australia achieving herd immunity by the middle of 2021
Implications for the economy:
- From a macro perspective, while near-term growth is likely to remain muted, we think a successful vaccine will provide a significant boost to GDP starting in the second half of 2021, primarily reflecting a more rapid recovery in domestic tourism spending
- more front-loaded rebound in house prices and increasingly likely acceleration in tax cuts should also provide support
On the earlier news of local manufacturing of a vaccine (Australia has manufacturing agreements for COVID-19 vaccines signed)
- this deal “should minimise regulatory delays given Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) will seek to independently check both manufacturing quality standards and post-production batches before it can be supplied to the community”
- “Once approved and manufactured, we think Australia is well placed to rapidly roll out the vaccine given the country’s universal healthcare system and high levels of public cooperation”
Forecasts for GDP:
- in 2020 to fall 4.2 per cent
- to rise 4.6% in 2021
- +5.3% in 2022
