A very, very brief summary of Goldman Sachs on Brexit and what it means for GBP (bolding mine)
- tense atmosphere has shaken the improving sentiment in GBP
- Our base case remains that we get a deal with probability around 70%
- should see GBP around 5% stronger vs. EUR and USD
- Uncertainty will persist for a while to come says GS:
- clarity will only come following the October and (likely) November EU summits and subsequent parliamentary votes
ON UK domestic data (and why it doesn't matter):
- UK inflation surprised to the upside
- as did retail sales
- the political overhang means neither the data nor BoE are having a sizeable impact on GBP
GBP strategy:
- until we see a deal, fading both excessive optimism and pessimism in GBP is the best short-term strategy
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ps. Goldman Sachs GBP forecasts are here (along with projections for other currencies also)