Goldman Sachs sees oil at $45 by October

Goldman Sachs client note on oil:

GS looking for oil to fall to $45 a barrel by October

They cite a surplus of crude, producers' easy access to cash:

• Our bearish view has been driven by two surpluses: excess hydrocarbons, but just as importantly, excess capital
• We find that the global market imbalances are in fact not solved and believe that the rally will prove self-defeating as it undermines the nascent rebalancing
• Should WTI remain near $60/bbl, U.S. producers will ramp up activity given improved returns with costs down by at least 20 percent

via Bloomberg

More:

• GS say prices will recover gradually through to end 2016
• Forecast for the end of next year is $60/bbl
• GS 12-month forecast is $55, and $53 in Q1 of 2016