How to trade Greece
High-level meetings in Berlin later
MNI reports there will be a statement following meetings today about Greece. Separate reports say Merkel, Hollande and Draghi will all be at the meeting.
There is no guessing what will come of the meeting, there have been far too many twists and turns in the enedless Greek saga to make wagers.
The latest 'deadline' for Greece is June 5 and but there appears to be some urgency to get something done sooner. I don't think this is a deal because generally good news is leaked by the Greek side but we'll be ready for anything.
Expect a relief rally in the euro, no matter what. It could extend 200-300 pips tomorrow as a squeeze takes place. It always comes down to the details and it's not a 'deal' until there is smiling picture with Merkel and Tsipras.
This is the status quo. There might be some mild euro selling but the clock hasn't hit zero yet. It depends on tone. If Merkel is frustrated and they don't leave Greece and room to negotiate, then euro selling could accelerate. In the end, Tsipras will fold because he likes being Prime Minister of a functional country and people in Greece like the euro.
Betting on a punt in one form or another is always a good bet on Greece. Even if there is some kind of deal, Eurozone leaders will push for a shorter deal so they can squeeze Tsipras down the line when his polling numbers are weak and his government is fractured.
Overall, I prefer the long side from a risk-reward but the sideline is the place to be. If there is a true deal, get onboard EUR/USD for a quick 100 pips.
Update: Die Welt reports that Tsipras may be ready to compromise on pensions and retirement age, so there are more signs of good news.