IEA comments in its monthly oil market report
- Warns that oil prices could break out above $80 per barrel
- Unless other producers act to offset deepening supply losses in Iran and Venezuela
- Says that there is a risk to the 2019 outlook for demand as well
- Cites challenges in emerging markets such as currency depreciation and trade disputes
- But for now, the risks aren't enough to change forecasts just yet
The major issue for oil markets now is Iran. Ignore the hurricanes and what not, this is what matters for oil right now. Production in Iran has already slowed down to its lowest levels since 2016 and the big question now will be can the other OPEC members cover for that shortfall?
So far, Iran themselves have been against them but there is also the question on who else in OPEC is able to deliver on the spare capacity. Saudi Arabia is one, surely but the rest of the pact doesn't look like they will be able to step up. OPEC+ members are set to meet in Algiers on 23 September, so this will be a key topic of discussion surely.
