— See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese industrial production is expected to show a
0.3% drop month on month in February, posting the first decline in four
months following a revised +1.3% in January, according to the median
forecast of analysts surveyed by Market News International.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will release the data
at 0850 JST on Wednesday, March 30 (2350 GMT Tuesday).
The METI has forecast that February output will show rise 0.1% m/m,
led mainly by rises in general machinery (+10.1%), iron and steel
(+5.6%) and paper and pulp (+5.4%).
The outlook for the March and April output will be released by the
ministry together with February figures.
But the negative impact of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that
wreaked havoc on the northeastern Pacific coast is unlikely to be
reflected in the METI forecast index.
The METI said it had conducted a survey of corporations by March
10, a day before the disaster hit Japan.
Output in March will be significantly reduced by the quake,
economists said.
Many of them expect a decline in the March output will be larger
than -2.6% m/m seen in January 1995, when the Great Hanshin Earthquake
hit western Japan, as the damage inflicted by the March 11 quake is
estimated at up to Y25 trillion ($309 billion), much larger than Y9.6
trillion seen in the 1995 quake, according to the government.
Moreover, the deadly earthquake and tsunami have caused an acute
shortage of electrical power supplied by Tokyo Electric Power Co,
prompting the firm to implement rolling blackouts in Tokyo and
neighboring cities.
This is curtailing factory production and retail store hours.
The combined GDP of Tokyo and eight other prefectures to which
TEPCO supplies electricity accounted for about 40% of Japan’s total GDP
in 2007.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]
