TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s corporate goods price index for November is
expected to have risen 1.0% on year, continuing to post the highest Y/Y
gain since +2.4% in November 2008, according to the median forecast by
economists surveyed by Market News International.
The Bank of Japan will release the November data at 0850 JST on
Friday, Dec.10 (2350 GMT Thursday).
In October, CGPI rose a preliminary 0.9% Y/Y, showing the first y/y
gain since +0.4% in June this year.
Economists said higher prices of refined petroleum products,
petrochemical products and nonferrous metals are expected to have
contributed to the November gain.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the average imported crude
oil price stood at $82.2 a barrel in the first 20 days of November, up
around 10% from a year earlier.
Moreover, the sharp 5.0% fall in CGPI marked in November 2009 means
that prices in November this year will post a solid year-on-year
increase, economists said.
Takehiro Sato, chief economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities,
said, “CGPI is expected to show around +1.0% on year for a while.”
CGPI recorded y/y falls from January 2009 to April 2010 in the
aftermath of the global financial crisis and recession. It marked -8.5%
in August 2009, posting the sharpest drop in a period after January
1980.
The median forecast for CGPI by the nine-member BOJ policy board
is for +0.5% y/y for this fiscal year and +0.6% for fiscal 2011.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
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