By Mark Pender
NEW YORK (MNI) – MNI’s U.S. retail trade index slipped seven tenths
in the March 12 period to 61.4, above 50 to indicate year-on-year growth
but at the low end of trend to indicate slowing growth, according to the
results of Market News International’s weekly survey released Monday.
This year’s Easter switch, to late April from early April, looks to
pull sales forward and significantly slow the sample’s results for
March.
But this effect has yet to bite, making for little change in the
sample’s total sales, which are a year-on-year +4.6%. A slowing to a
+3.5% rate, which really isn’t that much, would point to no change for
March’s adjusted ex-auto ex-gas sales.
Same-store sales are +2.8%, with +1.5% the breakeven reading that
would indicate no March-to-February change.
Unless March proves surprisingly resilient or dramatically weaker,
it will be hard to judge change in fundamental consumer spending until
April’s results are in.
For March and April combined, chains are guarded citing the
negative effects of high gas prices. And given the strength of February
and January, retailers are not likely to benefit from pent-up demand.
The sample’s income fell back from low double-digit growth, to a
year-on-year +5% despite wide reports of full pricing. The dip is
confirmed by distribution of change which shows fewer chains posting
gains in income, 45% vs. 52% in the prior period, and more posting
declines, 35% vs. 28%.
Sample size in the period is 214 chains making up 176,700 separate
retail locations.
Editor’s Note: MNI compiles its retail trade index based on a
weekly sample of company news and data.
** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **
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