ABN Amro on the EUR is here

Also, their comments on the AUD & NZD, in brief (bolding is mine):

NZD:

  • We expect the RBNZ to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.75% as soon as in September
  • To cushion the slide in commodity export prices
  • Another rate cut bringing the OCR back to 2.50%, cannot be ruled out if dairy prices continues to fall sharply ( dairy expected to stabilize towards the end of this year)
  • Any relief recovery in the NZD is likely to be capped
  • Though the RBNZ was less dovish on the exchange rate in its last monetary policy meeting, the central bank maintains the view that further depreciation in the NZD is necessary. Hence, a stronger NZD is likely to result in a more dovish RBNZ.
  • Consumer and business confidence have also deteriorated
  • Household spending and investment plans could be delayed as a result

Last but not least, non-resident holdings in government bonds remain elevated at around 70%. As interest rates in the US rise later this year, a reversal of capital flows will put further pressure on the NZD. We have lowered our 2015 year end NZD/USD forecast from 0.65 to 0.63.

AUD/USD:

  • Expect the RBA to lower the Official Cash Rate by 25bp in September (previously August)

In our view, the RBA remains concerned about the slow rebalancing in the economy, the recent decline in iron ore prices and the still relatively strong exchange rate. However, the RBA prefers to take a more cautious approach given financial leverage risks.

We expect economic growth to slow in the second quarter and recent measures announced by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority to cool house price inflation and address leverage risks

We also expect business investment data to be released on 27 August to remain weak which should warrant further monetary stimulus sooner than later.

As financial markets have not fully priced in a 25bp rate cut in Australia and are underestimating the magnitude of rate hikes in the US, we have lowered our Q3 and Q4 AUD/USD forecast to 0.72 (from 0.73) and 0.70 (from 0.72). We have also lowered our 2016 year end forecast to 0.64 (from 0.66).