A lot has been discussed about the impending US Fed tapering and the significance of the NFP’s toward their decision making at the next meeting on Sept 18th

I tend to go with my esteemed colleague, Jim Trott, who suggests it’s all rather hyped up and guess- work, and those of you in the comment threads that point out that the data alone isn’t key to the eventual fist coming off the monetary printing presses.

But what of today’s release? How do you best trade it? Adam asked the question yesterday and a few of you have come up with some very sensible plans of attack, or indeed,defence.

As I have said here before I very rarely put on a fresh trade going into major data releases as I like to think my trading decisions are based on a little more than just a turn of the card or toss of the coin. Neither do I have a crystal ball.

I will therefore be looking to trade on the information provided at 12.30 GMT. I’m a reluctant buyer of USDJPY on the belief that a lot of the tapering hype is already in the price so would still be a natural seller of rallies into 100.50-101.00 What we don’t know is how much the Fed are going to do, and whatever figure we get today we’re still not going to know. USDCHF has had a great run higher this week and will present good fatigue-based selling opportunities into 0.9500 for short term plays at least.

I’m rarely in my trades for the long haul. Never have been, which is a legacy from my interbank days. Yes, I invariably have a core belief ( my pound-bearish view overall is well documented here) but not one that doesn’t prevent me from trading in and out of the market to seize best opportunity. Why watch a trade go 300 points away from you when you can cut, turn, and re-create at better levels ? But that’s not say I don’t give a trade a chance to breathe either.

So there’s no point getting too excited ahead of the events today and later in the month when the Fed finally decide, and hopefully let us know too!

A better than expected number will drive the USD higher and vice versa. That much is obvious but many of the major pairs are near key levels and this will add to the equation when trying to calculate the extent of the after shock. USDJPY has a stream of strong offers above 100 and good support at 99.50. EURUSD has strong buying interest right here at 1.3100. GBPUSD lower down at 1.5500-10. EURGBP has strong barrier option related support at 0.8400 and AUDUSD has offers above 0.9200.

Don’t turn the NFP’s into a game of chance. There’ll be plenty of opportunity to make some pips after but there’s no set of finite rules that are going to be played out. That is one total certainty at least.

NFP’s… I’m trying to think of another three words that we could use with those initials to best sum up the hype and bluster.

What can you guys come up with? Best reply gets a Forex mug. maybe even a tee-shirt too if Adam is feeling generous !