NZ Q4 GDP due this week - preview

I posted a preview up earlier: New Zealand data this week - Q4 GDP - preview

This time now one via Westpac:

We expect a subdued 0.4% rise in GDP for the September quarter.

• Much of the expected weakness is due to lower primary sector activity.
• Milk production made a slow start to the new season, and oil and gas extraction has continued its natural decline.

On the positive side, we expect strong contributions from non-food manufacturing, construction and personal services.

The September quarter is likely to mark the low point for growth this year.

• The June quarter benefited from a pickup in milk production and a spike in tourist numbers during the Lions rugby tour.
• Similarly, we expect some rebound in December quarter growth, with a number of near-term indicators showing signs of life.