October 2015 US University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey data report 16 October 2015

  • Prior 87.2
  • Current conditions 106.7 vs 101.5 exp. Prior 101.2
  • Expectations 82.7 vs 79.0 exp. Prior 78.2
  • 1 yr inflation expectations 2.7% vs 2.8% prior
  • 5 yr 2.6% vs 2.7% prior

A good rebound on last month as offshore worries subside. The standout for the Fed though will be the fall in inflation expectations

Full text from the survey;

"The rebound in confidence signifies that consumers have concluded that the fears expressed on Wall Street did not extend to Main Street. Importantly, the renewed confidence did not simply represent a relief rally, but instead reflected renewed optimism. Personal financial expectations rose to their highest level since 2007, as did consumers' views toward purchases of durable goods. While consumers anticipate a continued economic expansion, many expected strong headwinds from falling commodity prices, weakened economies in China and elsewhere as well as continued stresses on European countries. Perhaps the most important finding is that low inflation and continued job growth have enabled consumers to adapt to a slower and more variable rate of economic growth by varying the pace of their spending without losing confidence that the expansion will continue. Overall, the data still indicate that consumption will expand at 2.9% during 2016."

The dollar is slightly higher by around 15 pips in USDJPY and the same against the pound and euro