–Now Expects 2012 Oil Demand To Grow By 1.1 Million Barrels Per Day

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the second and final part of
excerpts from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for December released
Tuesday:

OPEC Crude Oil Production

Total OPEC crude oil production increased by 0.56 mb/d in November
compared to the previous month to average 30.37 mb/d, according to
secondary sources. Crude oil output experienced significant increases
from Libya, Saudi Arabia, Angola, Nigeria, and Iraq while crude
production from the UEA, Venezuela, and Algeria decreased in November
compared to the previous month. OPEC crude production, not including
Iraq, stood at 27.69 mb/d in November, an increase of 0.50 mb/d from the
previous month.

—

World Oil Supply

Preliminary data indicates that global oil supply increased 1.31
mb/d in November to average 89.12 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply experienced
growth of 0.75 mb/d, while OPEC crude oil production increased by 0.56
mb/d. The share of OPEC crude oil in global supply remained unchanged at
34% in November. The estimate is based on preliminary data for non-OPEC
supply, estimates for OPEC NGL and OPEC crude oil production from
secondary sources.

—

Non-OPEC Supply

Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 0.67 mb/d in 2012 to
average 53.13 mb/d, showing a downward revision of 150 tb/d from the
previous MOMR. There were various upward and downward revisions to the
2012 supply forecast, coming from modifications to the 2012 risk
assessment as well as base changes in 2011 and some historical revisions
from 2009. Non-OPEC supply is expected to experience increases in all
the quarters in 2012 on a y-o-y basis. On a regional basis, North and
Latin America are expected to have the highest growth, followed by the
FSU, while Western Europe and the Middle East supply are seen to
decline. Growth is expected to come mainly from the US, Brazil, Canada,
Colombia, and Russia while Syria, Norway, Mexico, and Sudan oil supply
are seen to decline. The risk and uncertainties associated with the
supply forecast remain high on both sides, especially for the US,
Russia, Brazil, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, China and Mexico. On a quarterly
basis, non-OPEC supply is expected to average 53.17 mb/d, 52.95 mb/d,
53.01 mb/d, and 53.37 mb/d, respectively.

There were many upward and downward revisions to the non-OPEC
supply forecast in 2012 compared to the previous month. Various
revisions came as a result of historical adjustments in 2009 and 2010,
in addition to many revisions introduced to the 2011 forecast. However,
the main revisions that altered the supply growth forecast for 2012 were
made to Syria, Sudan, Yemen and China’s output projections. Syria oil
production is expected to drop 0.14 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.24 mb/d, a
downward revision of 125 tb/d compared to the previous forecast. The
revision was introduced as the political circumstances impacted
production and is foreseen to continue into 2012. Reports suggested that
Syria oil supply dropped by around 150 tb/d late November. Sudan oil
supply outlook in 2012 encountered a downward revision of 50 tb/d
compared to the previous MOMR, as difficulties in the secession of South
Sudan from Sudan influenced output. Political factors impacted Yemen oil
supply forecast in 2012, where output is expected to average 0.21 mb/d,
a minor increase of 10 tb/d and a downward revision of 40 tb/d compared
to the previous MOMR. China oil supply is expected to increase by 40
tb/d in 2012 to average 4.19 mb/d, a minor downward revision of 10 tb/d
compared to last month. The downward revision was experienced as reports
suggested that the return of the Peng Lai oil field output might be
delayed.

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** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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