Westpac’s preview:
- Evidence from previous budget-related falls shows it can often take several months for sentiment to fully recover.
- Accordingly the July, August and September reads will be key to judging the degree to which the fall may affect consumer behaviour.
- July’s survey is in the field in the week to July 5. Other factors that may influence sentiment in the month include: the RBA’s decision to keep rates on hold; a speech by Governor Stevens warning of potential falls in the AUD and singling out Sydney’s investor housing segment as an area to ‘watch'; weaker than expected May retail sales but more positive data on house prices (+1.4%mth in Jun vs -1.9%mth in May)
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