Asia-Pacific trading in the day ahead is like a heavyweight title fight.

The main event is the Chinese data slate including Q1 GDP but the undercard is almost as interesting. At 2345 GMT, New Zealand releases the Q1 consumer price index.

CPI is expected up 1.7% y/y, following a 1.6% rise in Q1.

New Zealand CP

New Zealand CPI y/y

The turn higher in CPI in Sept coincided with a run-up in NZD/USD to 0.86 from 0.78 as the RBNZ began a rate-hike cycle.

The most recent comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler were a month ago when he forecast up to 125 bps of rate increases this year because he wanted to move early to contain inflation. He also said that if inflation is faster than expected, he will react.

The New Zealand dollar is down today but held Friday’s low. Expect a big reaction on any miss in inflation but full reaction might not come until after the Chinese data is released.

NZDUSD daily chart

NZD/USD daily