Reuters polled nearly 70 analysts, results in a brief:

  • More than three quarters of them said they expected the USD to stay strong over the coming three to six months
  • And then for EUR/USD to move higher, consensus forecast of 1.18 a year out

Reasoning:

Weak economic data and cautious comments from non-U.S. policymakers in favour of the dollar

Reuters adds:

  • The expectations for dollar strength in the near term - and analysts in Reuters polls have been wrongfooted for nearly two years in their predictions for a weaker dollar - are largely driven by better-than-expected growth data in the United States.

And:

  • "U.S. assets have received considerable inflows due to relative economic strength at home and economic weakness in the rest of the world... We expect this process to begin reversing later this year," said Hans Redeker, global head of FX strategy at Morgan Stanley. "While the timing of our anticipated USD decline may have been pushed out as coincident data remain soft, the framework so far remains unchallenged."

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Poll taken taken April 29-May 2