LONDON (MNI), Jan 10 – The following table, conducted on Friday
through Monday, shows analysts’ forecasts for the policy decisions of
the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

While analysts’ median forecast for the timing of the next rate
hike, in the fourth quarter of this year. is unchanged, they see a
diminished chance of more quantitative easing.

The median probability of more QE came in at just 15% in the
January survey, down from 37.5% back before the November MPC meeting.

The left hand column shows expectations of a rate hike in quarters
ahead ie. an expected Q2 hike is shown as one quarter ahead.

————————————————————————
! Time ! ! ! ! ! !
! Of ! ! ! ! ! !
! Next ! Level ! Level ! Level ! Level ! % Chance !
! Move ! Bank ! Bank ! Bank ! Bank ! Of !
! Bank ! Rate ! Rate ! Rate ! Rate ! Increase !
! Rate ! End ! End ! End ! End ! In QE !
! Qtrs ! Q1 ! Q2 ! Q3 ! Q4 ! This !
! Ahead! 2011 ! 2011 ! 2011 ! 2011 ! Cycle !
————————————————————————
Median 3 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 15
High 11 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.5 60
Low 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0
Number Responses 26 27 26 26 27 23
————————————————————————

4Cast 2 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 10
ABN Amro 1 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 0
Allied Irish Bank 2 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 20
Barclays Capital 3 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 15
BNP Paribas 2 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 20
BoA-ML 3 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 15
Capital Econ. 11 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 60
Citi n/a 0.50 n/a n/a 1.00 n/a
Commerzbank 4 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 20
Credit Suisse 3 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 10
Daiwa 3 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 10
Deutsche 1 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 20
Global Insight 3 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 25
HSBC 7 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 n/a
ING 7 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 10
Investec 3 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 15
Jeffries 7 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0
JP Morgan 3 n/a n/a 0.75 n/a 20
Lloyds 3 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 n/a
Lombard 2 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 5
Morgan Stanley 2 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 n/a
NAB 1 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 25
Nomura 2 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 10
RBS 3 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 51
Soc. Generale 3 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.50 0
Stone McCarthy 3 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 15
Sumitomo Mitsui 2 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.25 10
——————————————————————–

For more information contact UK editorial on 44-20-7862 7491 or e-mail:
drobinson@marketnews.com; wwilkes@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$]