Does that just show how bad of a year it's been
The vote on Theresa May's leadership is expected in two hours with the results perhaps taking another three hours.
At the moment, cable is up 176 pips to 1.2663 or nearly 1.5%.
Here is Daiwa on the quagmire in UK politics. Even if May wins this vote, she can't win the Brexit vote, they believe:
"A defeat in that meaningful vote would likely be followed by a Parliamentary vote of no-confidence, tabled by the Labour party. While certain disgruntled Tory rebels might be tempted to vote against the Government in such a vote, on balance we would expect May's administration to scrape through. However, that would then likely be followed by votes on further opposition (or cross-party) motions proposing alternative ways forward on Brexit - perhaps including a second referendum, or a rewriting of the PD to include a commitment to the UK remaining a member of both the Single Market and a Customs Union (the so-called Norway-style model), which may allow for some toning down of the language around the backstop in the WA (but not substantively).
Overall, therefore, despite today's political soap opera, the likelihood of various scenarios for Brexit has probably not materially shifted. We still attach a probability of less than 50% to any one particular outcome, with the probability of a second referendum (40%) or orderly Brexit (45%) significantly greater than that of a disorderly 'no deal' Brexit (5%) or new general election (10%)."
