It's all fluid out there folks. ....
The markets are really fluid with the forex markets (especially USDJPY), focused on yields and stocks. Gold is whipping around too. You have to be careful out there as sentiment swings back and forth.
For the stocks, they did there opening fall. Looking at the Nasdaq index, it gapped below its 100 hour MA and fell toward the 200 hour MA. Back in October, the index fell briefly below the MA level. Today the price stalled just ahead of it. We are back up looking to test the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 6724.14. A move above takes the pressure back off the selling (we have seen this story before).
For the yields, the 10 year note yield moved to a low of 2.3169%. The 200 day MA comes in today at 2.3066%. The 50 day MA is also in the area at 2.2743%. The yield is still lower on the day at -2.1 bp (at 2.3505% currently). Yesterday, the 10 year was looking to make a move above the 2.40% level (was near highs in July and October), but failed and started moving back lower.
The USDJPY is playing follow the leader. On the way down in stocks and yields the USDJPY moves lower. It rebounds on the rise back higher.
Technically, the pair moved back above its 100 bar MA and trend line and has retraced toward the 200 bar MA and 50% retracement.
What next for the USDJPY?
Just looking at the 4-hour chart below, the price tested the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart last week and bounced. Today it cracked below the MA (currently at 113.18). If the break is real, the sellers should stall the rise against that level.
Of course lots of eyes are on yields and the stocks in the nervous market. However, look for the sellers to lean against the level on a test with a stop on a move above.
