The EURUSD has rallied up toward the key 200 day MA/trend line resistance on the back of the Moody’s rating warning. The price has not been above the 200 day MA (1.28327) since October 27th, 2011. There were two days then when the price closed above this MA at that time (at 1.4100 area), before restarting a bearish move which saw the price head to the 1.2623 level.

In addition to the 200 day MA is trend line resistance from a trend line connecting the highs from the end of February and the highs from April 2 and May 1. That level comes in at 1.2848 today. There should be sellers against the levels on this test. However with the fundamental reason behind the move, and concern about QE3 on Thursday, there should be stops on a break above. Key moment/level for the pair.