Why don't they just do what they always do?
This chart shows that the key OPEC members routinely violate any quota that's in place.
Iran and Iraq are grandstanding on around 250,000 barrels per day of production each.
At the moment, it sounds like Saudi Arabia is ready to blow the whole thing up because Iran and Iraq won't budge. If that is the result, the crude prices will fall at least 10%, probably more. That will cost every OPEC country billions of dollars.
What makes most sense for Iran, Iraq and everyone else to 'agree' to whatever quotas will satisfy the market and then produce whatever they want. There are no consequences for violating the quotas.
Sure, the market will eventually catch on but at least it's a few more months of prices above $45 per barrel.
In normal times this would be a layup but OPEC is so insane and there is so much political grandstanding involved that leaders would rather save face than save their countries billions.
