Key report to be released at 8:30 AM.
The February employment report will be released at 8:30 AM with expectations for NFP to rise by 195K. Last month the rise as a lower than expected 151K. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.9%. The average hourly earning are expected to rise by 0.2% vs 0.5% last month.
The expectations are that the report is not likely to change sentiment for a change in policy at the next FOMC meeting. However, it could change the markets perception of rate changes for the year. That will give the greenback its directional bias. Some of the "best" pundits out there are looking for a bounce back according Bloomberg. You can read about it in Ryan's excellent post here.
Above and below are a look at the major trends in employment. Last month, the change in non farm payroll disappointed. However the Unemployment rate and hourly earnings took some of the sting out of the jobs shortfall.
For this month, the ADP estimate for Service employment came in at 213.8K. However, the last two months have shown that the ADP overstated the Private sector results by around 35K each month. Will it overstate again? Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn't. The ISM Employment reports for Manufacturing and Service were both below 50. The dip below 50 was the first since Feb 2014. Initial employment claims meanwhile dipped lower over the last month.
Event and liquidity risk increases through a key report like this. That also increases the market risk. Trading can be very choppy, unpredictable...there is a lot of talk and chatter about this piece or that piece. That makes for treacherous waters. DO you want to take the cruise ship out into a hurricane? Well the Royal Caribbean cruise ship tried last month (and again was turned around a few days ago), but was not all that successful. So let the waters calm....but if you must, keep risk limited (it is not a time to go "all in"). Good luck with your trading.
