An extended interview with epidemiologist Larry Brilliant worth reading in full.
Re the 3 things, the world is not going to begin to look normal until three things have happened
- we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see everything
- we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral
- maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people-in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease-are immune
More immediately:
- By slowing it down or flattening it, we're not going to decrease the total number of cases, we're going to postpone many cases, until we get a vaccine-which we will, because there's nothing in the virology of this vaccine that makes me frightened that we won't get a vaccine in 12 to 18 months.
But, really, read the whole thing.
