With the pound moving on virtually every UK economic indicator, it's never been more important to know how to interpret the data

The CBI data looks bad but what does it really tell us?

Firstly, this is a reaction from businesses. They are the first to react to big events as they have potentially large outlays for stock. If they get worried, they won't order as much for fear they won't be able to sell it on, and so we see a slump in wholesale orders.

Secondly, the data isn't necessarily indicative of actual retail activity from shoppers. Looking more closely at the CBI report sub-sectors, grocers, furniture and carpets sales volumes dropped 30% & 90% respectively, while non-specialised goods, foot wear and leather rose 52% and 44%. Internet sales were still up 23% even though it was lower than June's 38%. Folks were still buying cars as the balance of +21% shows.

Now, let's acknowledge that the data isn't good for the economy because any slowdown along any part of the chain isn't good. However, the real news will come from actual retail sales and whether they've slumped or not. If they hold up, when we get the first decent post-vote look 18th Aug, then these suppliers might change their tune that things might not be as bad as they thought.

A lot of the early Brexit fallout is going to show in sentiment before it shows in actual hard numbers. That can often be a self fulfilling prophecy if the sentiment is way too negative that it causes ripples all the way through the economy. I'm not saying the UK isn't going to suffer, nor will it brush Brexit off but if you're trading the pound through this, you have to understand the different points and times when the data risk means something real has happened or whether people think that something's is going to happen.

At the end of the day the market is a simple creature and is going to move on the data depending on whether it's good or bad, irrespective of what it really means for the future of the economy. Trade the numbers short-term by all means but if we want to trade further out than the ends of our noses, we need to really understand what the data is telling us as that will give us a potential insight into what the UK government or BOE may do in the future, and that's where the biggest moves and trends will happen.