–Feb manufacturing output -1% m/m; -1.4% y/y
–Feb industrial production +0.4% m/m; -2.3% y/y
LONDON (MNI) – Manufacturing output growth fell at its fastest pace
for ten months in February, increasing the likelihood that the sector
remained in recession in the first quarter, figures from National
Statistics showed Thursday.
The figures show a renewed weakening in the manufacturing sector
with the level of output now at is lowest level since July 2010, meaning
the sector hasn’t grown for more than a year and half.
Manufacturing output fell 1% on the month and was down 1.4% on the
year, below the median forecast for a rise of 0.2% on the month and 0.2%
on the year. The earlier reported rise of 0.1% between December and
January was also revised downwards to show a fall of 0.3%.
A rise in manufacturing output of anything less than 0.7% in March
will leave the sector mired in recession.
A large rise in utilities and oil and gas output meant industrial
production rose 0.4% on the month — oil and gas extraction rose 4.6% on
the month and utilities output was up 6.1%. This was actually a little
higher than the median for a 0.3% rise, although the January data were
revised lower to show a fall of 0.6% on the month against the previously
estimated 0.4% drop.
This means that the impact of the data on Q1 GDP is only a touch
lower than analysts had expected. Still, it would take a rise of more
than 0.5% on the month in March to stop the industrial sector having a
negative impact on quarterly Q1 GDP growth.
This week’s data from the CIPS manufacturing PMI survey showed the
main index rose to 52.1 in March the highest for ten months. This
suggests we may see a bounceback in output next month, but for now the
manufacturing data make gloomy reading.
–London newsroom 4420 7862 7491 email: puglow@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]
