–Oct claimant count unemployment -3,700; rate 4.5%
–Jul-Sep ILO unemployment -9,000 q/q; rate 7.7%
–Sep total weekly earnings +2% 3m y/y vs +1.7% in Aug
–Sep regular weekly earnings +2.2% 3m y/y vs +2% in Aug

LONDON (MNI) – Claimant count unemployment posted a surprise fall
in October, confounding expectations that joblessness would continue to
rise, according to figures released by National Statistics Wednesday.

The number of workers claiming Jobseekers Allowance fell 3,700
between September and October, against the median forecast for an
increase of 5,000. There was also a downward revision to September which
now shows unemployment rose 1,300 on the month compared with the
initially estimate 5,300 increase.

The claimant count measure of unemployment is the most up to date
guide to changes in unemployment and October’s fall followed two
consecutive monthly increases in August and September.

While most economists are likely to still see the future path of
unemployment as upwards, due to the cuts in public spending, today’s
figures show the labour market continuing to demonstrate remarkable
resilience.

The official measure of unemployment, based on the ILO measure,
also showed a fall in the latest period. ILO unemployment decreased by
9,000 in July-September compared with the previous three month period,
causing the rate of unemployment to fall to 7.7% from 7.8% previously.

There was also a large rise in employment of 167,000 in the latest
three month period, although the headline figure masked a further lurch
towards increasing part-time employment.

Full time employment fell 34,000 in July-September compared with
the previous month, while part-time employment increased 320,000 to
reach a new record level.

National Statistics said that the number of part-time workers who
would prefer to be in full-time employment also hit a record level in
the latest period.

Wage pressures remained subdued, although growth rates continued to
rise towards more normal levels following the downturn in the wake of
the credit crunch.

Excluding bonuses, regular pay growth rose to 2.2% in the three
months to September on a year ago, up from 2% in August, the highest
since March 2009.

Total pay, which includes bonuses, rose to 2% from 1.7% in August.

–London bureau: 00 44 207 862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

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