–Mar claimant count unemployment -32,900; rate 4.8%
–Dec-Feb ILO unemployment +43,000 q/q; rate 8%
–Feb total weekly earnings +2.3% 3m y/y vs +0.8% in Jan
–Feb regular weekly earnings +1.7% 3m y/y vs +1.5% in Jan

LONDON (MNI) – Claimant count unemployment posted a sharp decline
for the second consecutive month in March, suggesting that growth in the
economy may be stronger than initially thought, figures released by
National Statistics showed Wednesday.

Claimant count unemployment fell 32,900 on the month in March, a
much larger decline than the median forecast for a drop of 10,000. This
followed a revised 40,100 fall on the month in February, the largest
drop since June 1997, from an originally estimated 32,000 decline.

The rate of claimant count unemployment fell to 4.8% from 4.9%.

The figures follow a raft of other data which suggests that the
economy could be stronger than most commentators had first thought, and
with inflation proving sticky the Bank of England may decide to increase
official interest rates sooner than expected.

The Bank of England warned last month that if growth in the economy
remained weak then some firms would be forced to lay off workers that
they had been trying to hang onto. The latest two months of data,
however, show a much stronger labour market.

The ‘official’ unemployment data, based on the International Labour
Organisation measure, showed joblessness rose 45,000 in Dec-Feb compared
with the previous three month period. The rate of ILO unemployment
rose to 8% from 7.8% with the number of unemployed hitting 2.5 million
the highest since 1994.

The ILO figures lag the claimant count data and it is likely that
they will begin to show quarterly declines over the coming months.
National Statistics monitors the relationship between the claimant count
and ILO unemployment figures and said that there was nothing out of the
ordinary in the latest period.

Some evidence of underlying weakness in the economy came from
the level of employment which fell 89,000 in Dec-Feb. Also the level of
inactivity in the economy continued to rise, by 110,000 in the
latest quarter, hitting a record high of 8.16 million.

Average weekly earnings growth for total pay including bonuses
picked up in February as bonus payments rose sharply compared to a year
earlier. Earnings growth in the 3 months to February compared with a
year earlier rose to 2.3% in February from 0.8% in January the highest
since December 2008, although it was below the median forecast of 2.5%.

Total earnings growth was boosted by large percentage increases in
bonus payments, mainly in the financial sector. Whole economy bonus
payments rose 42.1% in the year to February while those in the financial
sector rose 57.1%.

–London bureau: 00 44 207 634 1655; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]