Latest data released by ONS - 17 September 2021
- Prior -2.5%; revised to -2.8%
- Retail sales 0.0% vs +2.7% y/y expected
- Prior +2.4%; revised to +1.9%
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -1.2% vs +0.8% m/m expected
- Prior -2.4%
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.9% vs +2.5% y/y expected
- Prior +1.8%
Those are some poor readings with misses across the board relative to estimates, indicating that the reopening momentum is losing further steam in the UK.
Looking at the details, food store sales were down 1.2% on the month with perhaps some of that spending shifting to the easing of restrictions i.e. more spending on eating/drinking out at restaurants and bars. Meanwhile, non-food store sales were down 1.0% on the month driven largely by a fall in department store sales (-3.7%).
That said, August retail sales still clocked in 4.6% higher than their pre-pandemic levels back in February 2020 so there is that to take into account.
As such, one can still argue that this is more of some moderation in levels of activity rather than a downturn as peak conditions from the reopening have been met in the summer.
