UK DATA: Nov Retail Sales -0.4% m/m; +0.7% y/y; median-0.2% mm;0.4% y/y
–Nov Retail Sales ex fuel -0.7% m/m; +0.5% y/y; median-0.3% m/m;0.4%yy
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Retail sales fell sharply in Nov although barring a large fall in
Dec, figures for the final quarter of the year are likely to show
reasonably healthy growth. Retail sales including auto fuel fell 0.4% on
the month in November and were up 0.7% on the year. The fall, however,
followed an upwardly revised rise of 1% in October and taking both
months together suggests the retail sector is not performing quite as
badly as some of the more gloomy reports. The November outturn was a
little below the median forecast for a fall of 0.2% on the month but the
revisions meant the year-on-year growth outstripped the median of 0.4%.
A flat outturn in Dec would leave headline retail sales volumes up 1% on
the quarter and ex-auto sales up 0.8%. Even a 1% fall on the month in
December of total sales would leave volumes up 0.6% on the quarter.